Tamil Nadu polls: How delimitation storm added a new edge to high-stakes electoral battle | India News

After the proposal in Parliament, the DMK-Congress combine has trained its guns on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking to sow seeds of suspicion and anger in the state and shore up support. The BJP has rushed to issue clarifications, assuring that “no injustice will be done to any state, particularly to the states of the South.”‘Let the flame of resistance spread across Tamil Nadu’As the Centre tabled the bill in Parliament, Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin spearheaded a black flag protest across the state. Claiming it to be a “historical injustice”, Stalin lit the copy of the bill, raised slogans demanding that the Union government should not cripple the rights of states.“Let the flame of resistance spread across Tamil Nadu. Let the arrogance of BJP be brought down,” Stalin said in an X post.Drawing parallels with the anti-Hindi agitations of the 1950s and 1960s, Stalin said Tamil Nadu’s ‘fire against Hindi imposition scorched Delhi’ and forced it to yield back then. “I have reignited that fire by burning this black law that seeks to turn Tamils into refugees in our own land,” he said, adding that the agitation would spread across the state.He demanded that the delimitation exercise should be postponed for 25 years and that an assurance in this regard should be given in Parliament.Why the resistanceThe constitutional provision for delimitation ensures proportional representation so that every citizen’s voice, regardless of geography. Now, the process is pending since 1977 and rests on the 1971 census.Since then, the population of the country has increased exponentially, although unevenly. In the last five decades, while population in the northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh grew at a faster rate. Population growth in the southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh stabilised due to their better public health infrastructure, literacy and family planning policies.

In 1976, the 42nd Constitutional Amendment suspended inter-state seat revision until after the 2001 Census, effectively freezing Lok Sabha seats at 543. In 2001, the 84th Constitutional Amendment further extended this freeze until the first census conducted after 2026. The Delimitation Commission’s 2002 guidelines, issued under secretary Shangara Ram, clearly stated that the total number of seats allocated to states based on the 1971 Census would remain unchanged until the first census after 2026.Now as the deadline nears, DMK has accused the Centre of introducing the bill in an attempt to remove the freeze on the seats, pushing the southern states towards irrelevance in the national politics.“This bill promises to reserve one-third of the seats in Parliament and state assemblies for women. However, Union home minister Thiru Amit Shah explicitly stated that the law would only take effect after the next census and subsequent delimitation process. This is a clear indication that the Union Government plans to carry out the delimitation exercise after the 2024 elections, revealing their hidden agenda,” DMK said in a statement.“Another key indicator of the Union Government’s intentions lies in the new Parliament building, inaugurated on May 28, 2023. Designed to accommodate 848 Lok Sabha members, the capacity exceeds the current strength of 543 Lok Sabha members. Why invest in such an expansion unless there is an intent to increase the number of representatives?” it added.“This expansion is designed to benefit the BJP electorally, adding more constituencies in high-growth states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, regions where the party already holds a dominant presence. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, which has implemented responsible governance and curbed population growth, stands to lose representation. From its current allocation of 39 seats, the state’s representation could shrink to just 31,” the party further said.AIADMK backs CentreThe other Dravidian giant AIADMK, on the other hand, has supported the delimitation move and accused DMK and Congress of stalling the women’s reservation bill as betrayal of women in Tamil Nadu.“Even after the centre made it clear in Parliament that delimitation will not affect Tamil Nadu and that its representation will in fact increase, chief minister MK Stalin is pushing a false narrative ahead of the election,” said AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami while campaigning.

He said that as per the Centre’s clarification in Parliament, Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary constituencies are expected to rise from 39 to 59, while its share would slightly increase from 7.18% to 7.23%.He accused the DMK of continuing to spread misinformation and creating unnecessary fear among the public for electoral gains, despite this clarification. He also questioned the calls to hoist black flags, saying such appeals had not found public support.Responding to the CM’s statement that no one from the south could become the prime minister after delimitation, he said the claim was misleading and added that it was due to decisions taken during M Karunanidhi’s tenure that leaders like G K Moopanar did not get the opportunity to become PM, and that APJ Abdul Kalam was not supported for a second term.Why it mattersTamil Nadu has long been a stronghold of regional politics that has often viewed centralisation attempts by the Union government with caution. Whether in language policy or cultural identity the core of Tamil Nadu’s politics is a strong emphasis on identity, particularly Tamil pride.This sentiment is deeply rooted in its political history, where the state has been governed for nearly six decades by the two major Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK, in rotation. As a result, national parties have consistently struggled to make meaningful inroads in the state.Political analyst, who has observed Tamil Nadu politics over a long period of time, Shyam Somasundaram feels that BJP will have a negative impact due to this move in the upcoming polls. While talking to the Times of India, Somasundaram said, “DMK began building this narrative a year ago and even convened a meeting of Chief Ministers on the issue.“In Tamil Nadu, the anti-BJP vote is estimated to be around 90 per cent, and there is little public interest in increasing the number of MPs, as they are not seen as being directly connected with people on a daily basis. Instead, local body representatives and MLAs are viewed as more accessible and closely connected to the public,” he added.Meanwhile, DMK is conscious of possible shifts among Dalit and younger voters, some of whom may be drawn towards emerging alternatives like Vijay Thalapathy’s TVK.DMK aims to consolidate voters who may otherwise lean towards the AIADMK or are uneasy with its national alignment. DMK is attempting to reinforce its position as the primary anti-Centre voice in Tamil Nadu, especially at a time when the AIADMK’s proximity to the BJP has created a political opening.“DMK will harvest most of the anti-BJP votes. They may get more than 40 percent popular vote and around 150 to 180 seats,” Somasundaram told The Times of India.With campaigning in its final legs, it appears that the delimitation debate will have a substantial impact on the electorate, which often makes its decision based on the immediate political narratives.The 234-seat assembly will go to the polls on April 23 in Tamil Nadu. The results are scheduled on May 4.