India-US trade deal: Should India be enthralled by Donald Trump’s outreach to PM Modi?

Even as Trump has struck a conciliatory note, his aides continue to attack India. (AI image)

In signs of emerging thaw between India and the US on trade deal talks, US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have expressed optimism about the trade relationship. While Trump has said that ‘trade barriers’ would be overcome, and he will talk to PM Modi in the coming weeks, Modi has responded by calling India and the US ‘close friends and natural partners’.So does this signal an end to the trade tiff between the countries that has resulted in America imposing 50% tariffs on India? Ajay Srivastava, founder, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) is of the view that Trump’s conciliatory words should not lead India to build ‘false hopes’.

According to Ajay Srivastava, even as Trump has struck a conciliatory note, his aides continue to attack India. “Top Trump aides like Peter Navarro and Scott Bessent have used abusive language against India, showing the real tone of Washington’s approach,” he cautions.Importantly, Srivastava believes that the Donald Trump administration’s appeal in the US Supreme Court for restoring tariffs cities India as an example.Also Read | ‘One-sided’ trade myth: Why Donald Trump is wrong – How US profits big from India“The filing explicitly cites India’s Russian oil purchases to justify keeping all tariffs. Removing tariffs now would weaken Trump’s own court case—making any relief for India highly improbable,” he believes.

Trade ties with the US: What should India do?

Srivastava warns that New Delhi should not build false hopes. “India must remain steady. Negotiations were already underway when India faced 25% tariffs, with hopes of a cut to 10%. Instead, Trump added another 25% penalty linked to Russian oil. Unless the US drops these tariffs—which looks unlikely given the Supreme Court case—no trade negotiation can realistically move forward,” he says. “Trump’s warm words may simply be a tactic to weaken India’s resolve in pursuing multipolar ties with Russia and China,” he adds.Also Read | The 50% misfire: How Trump made Russian oil cheaper for India – And Putin a winnerInstead, GTRI is of the view that India must formally record its objections by filing an amicus curiae brief in the US Supreme Court. “This would support American businesses challenging the tariffs, counter Trump’s narrative, and protect India’s interests at a critical moment,” it says.“This would place India’s objections on record, strengthen the arguments of US businesses challenging the tariffs, and highlight why the duties — as high as 50 percent — are unlawful and discriminatory. By staying silent, India risks letting Trump’s claim—that its oil trade justifies punitive tariffs—stand unchallenged at America’s highest court,” it concludes.Also Read | Pushing back against Trump pressure: India’s state-owned refiners look to fully revive Russia crude oil buys; lack of cargoes an issue