New data series: Real GDP growth data calculation methodology overhauled to improve accuracy – here’s what changes
Real GDP in India is calculated by adjusting nominal growth figures for inflation through the use of price indices. (AI image)
India is set to release its first set of GDP or Gross Domestic Product data on the basis of a new series that may also address recent criticism from economists. The government is revamping the methodology used to estimate real GDP growth under a new national accounts series scheduled to be released this week. The revised framework will incorporate more detailed price deflation techniques to respond to concerns raised by economists.Real GDP in India is calculated by adjusting nominal growth figures for inflation through the use of price indices. Critics have argued that the existing approach is outdated because it depends largely on the wholesale price index rather than the more widely followed consumer price index.In November, the International Monetary Fund highlighted shortcomings in India’s national accounts system. It pointed to the continued use of the 2011–12 base year, heavy dependence on wholesale price data and extensive reliance on single-deflation techniques. The IMF assigned the methodology a “C” rating.
New GDP data series: What changes
“We will now use about 500–600 items from the new CPI and the old WPI series, compared with about 180 earlier, to deflate the output and improve accuracy of the data,” Saurabh Garg, secretary in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said in an interview according to a Reuters report.He noted that this approach will remain in place until a revised WPI series is introduced, which is expected in the near term.Under the earlier system, periods marked by subdued nominal GDP expansion and low wholesale inflation often resulted in inconsistencies, as they tended to produce comparatively higher real growth estimates.As per the current data series, India’s economy, which is one of the fastest-expanding among major global economies, is projected to grow by 7.4% in 2025–26. This is compared with an estimated 6.5% growth in 2024–25.Nominal GDP, which measures economic output at prevailing market prices, is expected to increase by 8.0% during the current financial year.A revised GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year will be released on February 27, along with updated historical data covering the previous four years.These modifications form part of a wider overhaul of India’s statistical framework, following the introduction of a new retail inflation series earlier this month. Updates to the wholesale price index and industrial production data are also in progress.A key element of the revised framework is the adoption of double deflation, which adjusts both output prices and input costs separately to derive real value added.Garg said the changes are expected to enhance data precision, especially in the manufacturing sector, where differences between input and output price movements had previously raised concerns about distortions under the single-deflation approach.
